White Christmas Predictions 2026: City-by-City Snow Forecast

What Counts as a White Christmas?

Before analyzing odds, we need to agree on what a "white Christmas" means. The National Weather Service (NWS) defines a white Christmas as having at least 1 inch (2.5 cm) of snow on the ground on December 25. Note that this does not require snow to be falling on Christmas Day -- snow from previous days that remains on the ground qualifies. This distinction matters significantly for prediction markets.

Prediction markets on predict.christmas typically use the NWS definition (1 inch of snow on the ground at the official weather station for each city on December 25 at 7:00 AM local time). Some markets use stricter definitions (snowfall on December 25 itself) or looser definitions (any measurable snow on the ground). Always check the specific resolution criteria before trading.

Historical Data: How Often Does It Snow on Christmas?

Historical climate data provides the baseline probability for white Christmas prediction markets. The NOAA Climate Normals dataset (30-year averages) gives us the most reliable starting point for estimating odds before seasonal forecasts are available.

Across the entire contiguous United States, roughly 35-40% of the population lives in an area that has experienced a white Christmas at least half of the time over the past 30 years. But the distribution is extremely uneven. Cities in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West see white Christmases 80-95% of the time, while the Sun Belt and most coastal cities see them less than 5% of the time.

Historical White Christmas Frequency (30-Year Average)

These baseline probabilities represent how often each city had at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25 over the past 30 years. They serve as the starting point for prediction market pricing before seasonal weather forecasts refine the estimates.

Climate Change and Shifting Snow Patterns

Climate change is systematically altering white Christmas probabilities, and prediction market traders who account for these trends outperform those who rely solely on historical averages.

The Warming Trend

Average December temperatures in the contiguous US have increased by approximately 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1970s. This warming trend does not eliminate snowfall -- it reduces the number of days below freezing, which reduces snow accumulation days but can increase precipitation totals (warmer air holds more moisture). The net effect on white Christmas odds varies by location.

Winners and Losers

• Cities losing white Christmas odds: Mid-latitude cities near the snow/rain boundary are seeing the biggest declines. Philadelphia, Washington DC, Cincinnati, and Nashville have seen their historical white Christmas frequency drop by 5-10 percentage points over the past 30 years compared to the preceding 30 years. For these cities, historical 30-year averages may overstate future probabilities.
• Cities with stable odds: Far northern cities (Minneapolis, Anchorage, Burlington) remain cold enough that warming has had minimal impact on Christmas snow probabilities. These cities are warming, but December temperatures are still well below freezing, so snow on the ground remains nearly certain.
• Lake-effect cities: Cities downwind of the Great Lakes (Buffalo, Cleveland, Erie) have a complex relationship with climate change. Warmer lake temperatures increase lake-effect snowfall early in winter (before the lakes freeze), potentially increasing white Christmas odds even as overall temperatures rise. This creates a non-obvious prediction opportunity.

US City-by-City Odds

Here is a detailed breakdown of white Christmas odds for major US cities in 2026, combining historical data with climate trend adjustments. These are baseline estimates as of February 2026 -- actual prediction market prices will adjust significantly as seasonal weather forecasts become available in October-December.

New York City

Historical average: 22%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 18%. New York City's white Christmas odds are persistently overestimated by the public due to cultural associations (Christmas movies, holiday marketing). The reality is that NYC sits right on the rain/snow borderline in late December, and even modest warming pushes marginal events from snow to rain. The city's urban heat island effect further reduces accumulation. Prediction markets for a NYC white Christmas typically trade at 20-25% in early fall, which represents fair-to-slightly-overpriced given the climate-adjusted baseline.

Chicago

Historical average: 45%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 40%. Chicago is the quintessential coin-flip white Christmas city. Cold enough to snow regularly in December but warm enough that snow cover is not guaranteed. The key variable for Chicago is whether a cold air mass is in place during the week before Christmas -- pre-existing snow cover from earlier storms is more important than Christmas Day snowfall.

Denver

Historical average: 80%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 78%. Denver's high elevation (5,280 feet) and proximity to moisture sources from the Rocky Mountains make it one of the most reliable white Christmas cities in the US. Even in mild winters, Denver typically receives enough snow by late December to maintain ground cover. Prediction markets for Denver white Christmas rarely trade below 70%, even in early estimates.

Minneapolis

Historical average: 85%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 82%. Minneapolis is the large-city gold standard for white Christmas reliability. The combination of northern latitude, continental climate, and consistently sub-freezing December temperatures means snow that falls in November or early December typically remains on the ground through Christmas. The only white Christmas risk for Minneapolis is an extremely unusual warm spell.

Boston

Historical average: 28%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 23%. Boston's coastal location exposes it to warm ocean air masses that can melt snow cover rapidly. Like New York, Boston sits near the rain/snow boundary in late December. The city's white Christmas odds are more volatile than inland cities -- a well-timed nor'easter can dump 12+ inches, while a mild pattern can leave the city bare and green.

European City Odds

White Christmas prediction markets on predict.christmas also cover major European cities, where cultural significance of holiday snow is equally strong but climate patterns differ from North America.

London

Historical average: 6%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 4%. London's mild maritime climate makes white Christmases extremely rare. The Gulf Stream keeps winter temperatures well above freezing most of the time. The last significant London white Christmas was 2010, and prediction markets consistently price London snow odds in the low single digits. However, when it does happen, the event generates enormous media coverage, making the cultural impact disproportionate to the probability.

Paris

Historical average: 8%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 5%. Like London, Paris sits in a maritime-influenced climate zone where December temperatures rarely sustain snow accumulation. The city's urban heat island effect further reduces odds. A white Christmas in Paris is tradeable as a high-payoff, low-probability event.

Moscow

Historical average: 92%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 88%. Moscow's continental climate and northern latitude make white Christmas nearly certain. Even with significant warming, Moscow's December temperatures remain firmly below freezing. The only prediction market uncertainty is whether an unusual warm spell melts existing snow cover.

Berlin

Historical average: 25%. Climate-adjusted baseline: 18%. Berlin sits in a transition zone between maritime and continental climates, making its white Christmas odds highly variable year to year. The city has experienced a notable decline in white Christmas frequency over the past two decades, consistent with broader European warming trends.

Key Factors for 2026

While it is too early (in February) to make specific weather forecasts for December 2026, several large-scale climate factors will influence white Christmas odds as the year progresses:

ENSO Status

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is the most important large-scale predictor of winter weather patterns. An El Nino winter typically brings warmer, drier conditions to the northern US and wetter conditions to the southern US -- reducing white Christmas odds for northern cities. A La Nina winter brings the opposite pattern -- increased cold and snow for the north. The ENSO forecast for winter 2026-2027 will become clearer by mid-2026 and will significantly move prediction market prices.

Arctic Oscillation

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index determines whether cold Arctic air stays bottled up near the pole (positive AO) or spills south into mid-latitudes (negative AO). A negative AO during December dramatically increases white Christmas odds for mid-latitude cities like NYC, Chicago, and London. The AO is not predictable more than 1-2 weeks in advance, making it the primary source of late-season volatility in white Christmas prediction markets.

North Atlantic Oscillation

For European cities, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the key winter weather driver. A negative NAO increases the likelihood of cold, snowy conditions across northern Europe, while a positive NAO brings milder, wetter conditions. The NAO, like the AO, is only predictable on short time scales, creating trading opportunities as December approaches.

Trading White Christmas Markets

White Christmas prediction markets have a unique trading lifecycle that creates opportunities at every stage:

1. February-August: Historical baseline. Markets trade near climate-adjusted historical averages. Edge comes from understanding climate trends better than the market. Early positioning at baseline prices, before seasonal forecasts refine odds.
2. September-October: ENSO and seasonal forecasts. NOAA and other agencies release winter weather outlooks. ENSO forecasts solidify. Markets adjust 5-15 points based on these outlooks. Traders who understand the implications of ENSO phase for specific cities can enter before the market fully prices in the seasonal forecast.
3. November: Medium-range forecasts. 2-4 week weather forecasts become available for December. Markets begin to diverge significantly from baseline as actual weather patterns emerge. Trading volume increases.
4. December 1-20: Short-range forecasts. 7-14 day forecasts provide increasingly precise temperature and precipitation predictions. Markets move sharply as forecasts solidify. The highest-volume and most volatile trading period.
5. December 21-25: Final resolution. Markets converge toward 0 or 100 as the weather forecast for December 25 becomes nearly certain. Last-minute trading opportunities exist when forecasts shift unexpectedly.

2026 White Christmas Forecast Summary

As of February 2026, here are the prediction market consensus baseline odds for a white Christmas in major cities. These will update significantly as seasonal and weather forecasts become available later in the year:

• Minneapolis: 82% -- Near-certain, but tradeable on extreme warm spells
• Denver: 78% -- High confidence, elevation advantage
• Salt Lake City: 78% -- Similar to Denver, mountain proximity
• Detroit: 50% -- True coin flip, lake-effect variable
• Chicago: 40% -- Slightly below 50/50, warming trend
• Boston: 23% -- Coastal warming, but nor'easter potential
• New York City: 18% -- Overperceived odds, rain/snow boundary
• Philadelphia: 14% -- Below NYC, slightly warmer
• London: 4% -- Extremely rare, Gulf Stream protection
• Paris: 5% -- Similar to London, maritime climate
• Berlin: 18% -- Declining trend, continental influence
• Moscow: 88% -- Near-certain, extreme continental cold

The magic of white Christmas prediction markets is that they combine data-driven analysis with one of the most emotionally resonant questions in culture. Prediction markets on predict.christmas turn holiday hope into tradeable outcomes -- and reward traders who let data guide their positions rather than sentiment.

For related holiday predictions, read our Holiday Shopping Predictions 2026 and Top Toy Predictions 2026. For cross-domain analysis, explore markets on predict.codes and predict.beauty.